ZombieGuide wrote:
However, I do think these figures will be snatched up by completionists and will one day sell out. On the collectors secondary market, I can see these becoming desirable, sought-after items. Maybe not now, but years down the road as people complete thier collections. Remember Bronze Bombers? While not officially Joes, they were laughed right into clearance and now they fetch $400+ MIB. Same thing with a ton of silly looking Joe stuff from thru out the years: Create-A-Cobra, etc.
I personally believe that these will be initially shunned, but 5 years or so from now when they are long gone, they will be desired.
I'll respectfully disagree. The main reason the Bronze Bombers are expensive is because no one bought them back them. As such, most ended up in the hands of kids who destroyed them.
With these figures, and all the MC exclusives, the entire production runs are concentrated in the collector market. (The same was true of the ARAHC Wave V.) That makes a huge difference since it means that most pepole who wanted them have these and there are many collectors who bought multiples to resell or trade at a later date.
I think a better example is to look at the prices of modern Star Wars figures. Most of them are absolutely worthless today. The ones that have retained their value have largely been figures that were either hard to find at retail: but also the only release of the character. As such, in the case of a figure like Munitia, you might be correct in that she will be highly desirable some day. But, in the case of the others, these DTC figures can hardly be called the best version of the character and the marketplace will reflect that.
Look at the history of other Convention exclusives. The only set that has appreciated considerably is the first...because so many collectors at the time passed on it and it was one of the few that likely had low production numbers. Since then, a few individual figures have captured collector attention. But, they are few and far between and most con figs now sell for less than their original price. Look back at the Wave V figures. Those probably had production runs of no more than 5,000 at the highest estimate. Yet, those sell for nothing because the collectors who want them have them and the rest move on.
The Joe market right now is probably bigger than it's been at any time since the heyday of 2003. Yet, most of the "rare" and exclusive figures produced in the past few years have depreciated or stayed flat. New collectors simply don't care about going to back to fill in every figure they are missing. The Joe line is too daunting at this tiem for anyone who isn't already a completist to go back after the fact and fill in. (Hasbro has already released ~150 unique figures THIS YEAR. And, there's tons more on the way. Even if the movie flops and we never see another Joe produced at retail after 2009, there will likely be at least 225 more figures produced between now and then.) As such, you're going to see guys filling their collections with the best versions of figures...not every version. So, if you want to take a gamble, Munitia would be the one I'd go for. But, as she's packed in the most expensive set, MC knows this, too. And, with those other 2 figures likely selling for less than original price on the aftermarket, it will be tough for anyone to really "make" money selling extra Munitia's unless you're buying them on the secondary market today.